Are we overdue?

From time to time, someone will remark to me that Tokyo is "overdue" for a major earthquake.  No matter how many times I hear this, I find it odd and a little illogical.  It suggests that there was a "due date" for a major earthquake and now that this "due date" has passed, we are all living on borrowed time.  I think it's quite obvious that there is no "due date" for a major earthquake anywhere and hence the idea that we are "overdue" is as about as logical as other popular forecasts of doom, such as "we're overdue for another ice age!" and "the Earth is overdue to be struck by a gigantic asteroid!"  No fear.

It is generally accepted that earthquake predictions is incredibly imprecise and little more than guesswork. However, one thing which is accepted is what causes earthquakes at tectonic boundaries.  In short, tectonic plates slide past each other at their boundaries.  The boundaries of tectonic plates may be rough causing the plates to stick from time to time.  If the plates stick, pressure will build up.  If a large amount of pressure builds up and this pressure is released suddenly, there will be an earthquake.  The reasons why people cannot predict earthquakes are as follows.

1. No-one knows if there is a large build-up of pressure at the boundary of any particular tectonic plate.  There may be none. The fact that plates move about does not necessarily mean that there is any pressure build-up.

2. If there was a large build-up of pressure, no-one knows whether this pressure will be released suddenly or not.  There is no reason why it must be.

3. If there was a large build-up of pressure and it was released suddenly (neither of which we know), no-one knows the specific place where the pressure will be released.

Considering the above, there is no reason why a major earthquake must strike Tokyo ever again.  Similarly, there is no reason why a major asteroid must strike the Earth again.  Of course, it may well happen but so could many things.

People often remark that a major earth quake has not struck the Tokyo area since September 1923.  That establishes nothing other than the fact that a major earth quake has not occurred for close to 90 years.  Earth quakes are not like Haley’s Comet (i.e. guaranteed to occur every so many decades).

Over the last year, there seems to have been pessimistic forecasts in many areas: stock markets, debt markets, employment markets, global warming and so on.  Such negativity may well be justified in some of these areas.  However, I can’t help but feel we are getting a little carried away when we say that the cataclysmic destruction of Tokyo is not only inevitable but imminent.  I know I am thinking out loud here, but I, for one, don’t accept it.

Thank you for reading and take care

Our Man in Japan

The Yakuza and my lease

Before signing-up to rent my apartment in Tokyo, I carefully read the terms of my lease, just like the diligent lawyer I try to be.  Everything seemed quite standard apart from the following warranty:¹

The tenant hereby warrants that he/she is none of the following:

1.       a member of gangs or affiliated with gang groups.

2.       affiliated with or related to organizations which are related to indiscriminate mass murder.

3.       affiliated with the adult-entertainment business or using the property for the sex trade business.

4.       affiliated with receiving criminal proceeds.

5.       related to money collectors affiliated with antisocial or gang groups.

The first question I asked myself upon seeing this clause was how the drafting error in sub-clause (2) escaped unnoticed: apparently I am allowed to join an organization carrying out mass murder so long as that mass murder is discriminate!  The second question was why this clause was in the lease to begin with.  Well, there’s one simple answer: Yakuza.

I am sure most of you have heard of the Yakuza.  Even before arriving in Japan, I had heard of these gangsters, but really didn’t know much apart from the fact that they have tattoos and are generally regarded as undesirables.  Since being here, I’ve learnt a few things which I thought I would share with you.

First and foremost, the Yakuza are not called Yakuza in Japan.  Boryokudan is what they are dubbed by the authorities and most Japanese.  It literally means “violent gang.”  The Boryokudan prefer to call themselves Ninkyo Dantai which means “chivalrous gang.” 

The main sources of income for the Boryokudan are apparently protection rackets, strip clubs, illegal gambling, drugs and property management.  In relation to property management, non-descript companies are sometimes established to act as fronts for Boryokudan landlords.  I live in a region of Tokyo which apparently has quite a few Boryokudan.  What does that mean for a tenant such as myself? Nothing much but I still make sure I pay my rent on time!

Related to the Boryokudan are the Saikaya, who bribe public companies under threats of turning up to the company’s general meeting and causing a fiasco. 

It is a common warranty in many contracts (such as my lease) that the parties have no affiliation with the Boryokudan, Saikaya or activities that they are commonly involved in.

At most onsens (these are Japanese hot springs), you see signs banning people with tattoos.  This is to keep out Boryokudan who are famous for extensive tattoos.  It also keeps out Westerns who think that having a Superman tattoo on their shoulder is manly rather than just naff.  I find the latter more offensive.

Finally, apart from the tattoos, some say that you can pick a Boryokudan by the car they drive.  Apparently they like big, black Bentleys.  I don’t know if this true.  It sounds a little disparaging of Japanese Bentley drivers if you ask me!  That said, I’ve seen some shifty-looking characters driving around my area in such vehicles.  The cars always seem to be left-hand-drives too.  Strange.

There is probably a lot written about the Boryokudan, especially if the Mafia is anything to go on.  But until I join or become a victim, this is all I have to share!

Thank you for reading and take care.

Our Man in Japan.

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1. There was no confidentiality provision in my lease so don’t worry: I’m not breaching any terms by sharing this with you!

Rent, rent, rent

Renting in Australia is a simple and cheap matter compared to that in Tokyo.  I’m not talking about the difficulties of finding an apartment you like, in a location you like.  I’m talking about the process you have to go through once you’ve found your chosen abode and the upfront fees you will have to pay.

As many of you know, to rent an apartment in Australia, you simply complete your application form, pay one month’s deposit and move in.  The rental rates are comparatively very low so it’s all quite straightforward.  In Tokyo, however, you are likely to find yourself paying the following fees before you are even allowed in the front door:

1.  one month’s rent as an agent’s fee;

2.  two month’s rent as a deposit;

3.  the first month’s rent in advance; and

4.  two month’s rent as “key money” (I’ll explain this later).

So you are up for six months’ rent before you even walk through the front door.  I don’t want to be so vulgar as to mention precise sums of money, but let me just say that one month’s rent for an apartment in a popular area of Tokyo is not an insubstantial amount of money!  But wait, there’s more.  You are also liable for a lock-change fee and then a further fee to insure the property against earthquakes.  Yes, that’s correct: you pay to insure the property against earthquakes even though you don’t own it.

To make matters worse, the two months’ rent you paid as “key money” is no more than a gift to the landlord.  It is not refundable.

So your landlord has six months’ rent in their pocket before you even move in.  You would think that adequately protects their interests should you default.  Well, your landlord disagrees.  To rent an apartment in Tokyo, you also need a guarantor to guarantee your obligations for the life of the lease.  And I’m afraid your mate, Trevor, won’t do as a guarantor either.  You need an institution of respectable financial stature to back you.  If you can’t find a volunteer, you will have to pay a rental insurance company to act as your guarantor. 

 

I’ve probably said enough to convince you that matters are tipped somewhat in favour of landlords in Tokyo, but it’s not all bad news.  There are clearly some obstacles to renting in Tokyo, but they are all manageable (provided you have enough money saved!).  Actually, there are some good points as well.  First, there are many apartments available in Tokyo so you have plenty of options, even at short notice.  Secondly, many apartments are designed for one person so if you like flying solo, Tokyo will appeal.  Thirdly, all of the above fees are negotiable.  If you have a good agent on your side and come across as reputable, you might get some of them reduced.  Finally, there are many real estate agents who are friendly and keen to help you.  They will drive you from apartment to apartment and give you plenty of advice.  That said, you are paying them a month’s rent or more as an agent’s fee.

Before we conclude, there is one last point I should make about renting in Tokyo: if you expect the pillaging of your savings to be rewarded with the keys to a princely manor on 20 acres of swan-nibbled countryside, think again.  My first apartment was 20 square metres.  My current apartment is 26.7 square metres.  This is quite normal.  Still, it’s mine.  My little corner of the world, even if it’s only that—a corner.

Thank you for reading and take care.

Our Man in Japan.